With the world’s eyes already turning toward Nigeria and Boko Hiram’s kidnapping of almost 300 girls, the World Economic Forum on Africa opened today in the capital, Abuja.
With young and rapidly growing populations, many countries in Africa face important challenges and opportunities in the years ahead. World population exceeded 7 billion in 2011, is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050, and much of that growth is expected to occur on the African Continent.
In response, the World Economic Forum created the Global Agenda Council on Population Growth. PSI President and CEO Karl Hofmann is a member of the Council.
Besides driving or contributing to discussions like the World Economic Forum on Africa or the ongoing dialogue around post-2015 development goals, the Council’s activities include developing tailored policy briefs for three key countries “that are undergoing important demographic transformations and may be able to realize a positive “population dividend” in the coming decades” – Nigeria, Rwanda and Pakistan.
As part of the policy brief process, the Council recently released case studies from Nigeria and Rwanda.
In Nigeria, there is reason for hope. From a summary of the Nigeria case study:
“Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation with an estimated population of more than 170 million. Today Nigeria’s fertility rate is higher than that of sub-Saharan Africa as a whole and more than twice the world average.”
“While providing for such a large population poses a significant economic challenge, its age structure can also be a potential boon to growth if it positions itself properly to achieve a demographic dividend – possible when its working age population is larger relative to its non-working age population. In Nigeria, trends show a significant rise in the share of working age people, with a potential ratio of working-age to non-working age people rising to approximately 2 by 2050. If employed productively, the working-age group can cause Nigeria to reap significant economic gains.”
In Rwanda, much progress has occurred recently, positioning the country for great gains in the coming years. From a summary of the Rwanda case study:
“Between 2005 and 2010 Rwanda experienced a major drop in its total fertility rate, falling from 6.1 to 4.6. Contributing to this drop is a dramatic increase in the uptake of modern contraception methods. In just five years the modern contraceptive prevalence rate more than quadrupled from 10% in 2005 to 45% in 2010. The country aims to achieve 70% by 2015.”
“Maternal and child mortality has also declined in recent years. Under-five mortality fell by 61%, dropping from 196 to 76 deaths per 1,000 live births between 2000 and 2010. Additionally there has been a significant decrease in maternal mortality with a decrease in deaths per 100,000 live births from 1,071 in 2000 to 476 in 2010.”